Economic data is hard to resist and demand is not satisfactory Zheng cotton market is under pressure

October 04, 2019

[International spot]

On July 13, US and Chinese economic data effectively stimulated the market. Investors reduced the bearish bets on the euro and pushed up the euro. At the same time, the US stock market ushered in a strong rebound after falling since May, and commodity prices generally closed up. Affected by this, speculative buying emerged in the ICE cotton futures market, and the cotton price was pushed up to more than 72 cents, resulting in an increase in trading volume. Analysts said that the rebound in cotton prices has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the market. Therefore, it is not overly optimistic that the cotton price will continue to rebound. However, the rare drought situation in the US cereal growing region for 25 years will provide support for the market.

【International **】

Statistics: December contract opening price 70.20 (cents/lb, the same below), the highest price of 72.76, the lowest price of 70.18, the closing price of 72.55, the settlement price of 72.66, up 273 points, volume 23013 hand, increased 6811 hand.

On July 13, the domestic cotton price remained stable, the national cotton price index A (CNCotton A) representing the price of 229 cotton in the Mainland was 19,394 yuan per ton, which was the same as that of July 12, and the national cotton representing the price of 328 cotton in the Mainland. The price index B (CNC toton B) was 18,467 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton.

[domestic spot]

On July 13th, Zheng Cotton opened slightly lower and continued to oscillate upwards throughout the day. It ended up slightly lower and the market continued to shrink. Among them, the CF1207 contract average price of 18460 yuan, down 30 yuan; CF1209 contract average price of 18745 yuan, down 45 yuan; CF1211 average contract price of 19190 yuan, down 30 yuan; total market turnover of 117500 hands, 37578 less than the previous day, hand, Accumulated positions 462508 hands, reducing 7350 hands.

【domestic**】

Xinjiang: The spot price rose, and the turnover was poor. On July 12, Urumqi North Railway Station and Ulaanbaatar Station, publicly inspected Xinjiang Xinjiang cotton quotation 19100-19300 yuan/ton (gross weight, delivery), and 3rd quotation 18600-18700 yuan/ton. , both rose 100-200 yuan/ton from the previous week. According to statistics of the Urumqi Railway Bureau, the current number of wagons that can be used for cotton transportation is 280 vehicles/day, and the remaining commodity cotton is more than 200,000 tons; public inspection of warehouses in Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang and other places Grade 3 Xinjiang cotton was quoted at around RMB 19,000/ton (public fixed, delivery, and retested), which was 200 yuan/ton higher than last week. The turnover was not good.

【Market Review】

Currently, the overall growth of cotton in the main cotton producing areas in China is good. If the weather is normal in the later period, the local picking period will be ahead of schedule. For example, the overall cotton growth in the inland areas of northwest China is gratifying, and the new cotton picking time is expected to be about 20 days ahead of schedule. Need to see the market and funding conditions. The rise is more from the continuing drought caused by the continued drought in the main US agricultural production areas and the combined interest rate cuts by various countries to stimulate the market. There is no actual demand support, and the domestic market is in storage and storage in 2012/13, the weather is not ideal and short-term supply With the slight upward pressure on the economy and the hesitation of cotton textile enterprises, which are largely reduced in production and production, and the consumption continues to be sluggish, the shocks dominated. The vacuum of the policy made cotton companies and cotton mills unable to find a direction of operation.

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